Follow our perspective on the global macro factors, economics, politics and human psychology that drive markets.
Twelve cubed? Multiple
expansion occurs when the fundamental outlook improves dramatically from current
expectations. Mark Carney added nothing in his speech yesterday to suggest the
outlook is promi...
Once again the market
tried (impressively) to come back from overnight weakness and could not hold a
bid late in the day. We are convinced there is significant selling from
longer-term capital gains ...
Sitting in the Seattle waiting for a flight to Victoria—it is like going
from Paradise to Paradise. This planet we live on is full of beauty,
breathtaking vistas, and lots of debt to pay for it. I oft...
do not think the market has shaken out enough of the fast money chasers to
rally yet. Central bank liquidity is a good reason for the market to rally, but
unlike QE2, this one was well telegraphed an...
The TSX correction is a
bit more vertical than in the US, but has not reached its support
range target between 12,020 and 12,185. Given the Fed and global central bank
liquidity efforts, we do not se...
A close above the recent
high (1474.51) would negate the current overbought correction phase. The biggest
risk this week is not from economic data, but from quarter end chasing. At a
time like this w...
The Fed did surprise
us yesterday and given the failure of the market to sell the news, it was clear
we were not alone. The market closed above the upper resistance line we
highlighted as the point t...
It is simply a will
they or wont they day. And the next 2-3% on the TSX will be determined by what
they do. If you do not know who they are, you might as well hang up the trading
hat. The FOMC, with ...
For the S&P 500,
tomorrow’s Fed decision is far more important than the German vote. With a
significant majority expecting the Fed to open the balance sheet, the risk is
for disappointment. So we...
The TSX lost some
momentum on Monday as gold and crude oil backed off a bit and base metals stocks
cooled a bit too. Some fast money investors were taking money off the table
yesterday in front of th...
The TSX appears to failing above the 200-day average as anticipated. A cooling in the energy and gold stocks are the main catalyst, but bank earnings, while tending to be better than expected (especiall...